Summary 

A. Lundry thought the modern type of population reproduction could lead to the regress of population. Since the end of 20^th century many demographers noted the formation of the newest type of population reproduction, during which mortality exceeds childbirth and instead of natural growth of population the contrary, namely, its loss is apparent, and the natural depopulation takes place.

In this regard, the modern demographic development of the world is characterizes by diversity and if in some developed countries the modern type of population reproduction is replaced by the newest type, in others it is in the last phase, and still in some other countries the second phase of the modern type of population reproduction is noticed.

Therefore, the era of quasi-equilibrium on the upper levels of childbirth and mortality is replaced by the new era of equilibrium on the lower levels of the same. As opposed to the last type of population reproduction, the demographic structure became worse during the high rate of demographic aging, and the global tendency of depopulation, as well as the high rate of mortality growth, already existing on the lower level, clearly confirms its predictable rather than fragmental nature   worldwide, which is not excluded in the next stage of demographic development in any country.

There is an interesting situation in South Caucasus as well. Unlike Azerbaijan, where the third phase of the modern type of population reproduction has just started, in Armenia it was noted in the 90s of the last century and by 2025 the newest type of population reproduction is expected to begin. As regards Georgia, we think that the modern type of population reproduction, where mortality exceeds childbirth, is apparent and there is not even the smallest natural growth of population.  Instead of the term “civilized type” it is more proper to call it “depopulated”, or according to Malthus’s theory – “Malthusian type” as is well-deserved by Malthus.

The work also critiques the views regarding the essence of depopulation. We think that depopulation, first of all, denotes the reduction of population which is only stipulated by excessive rates of mortality relative to childbirth and not by the reduction of absolute number of population which is the result of negative balance of migration. Consequently, there are invisible and visible types of depopulation.

According to our hypothesis, depopulation as the multiphase, curtailed type of population reproduction can develop in the following manner: within the first phase the growth of mortality rate lags behind the decrease rate of childbirth or is nearly equal, however the distinction between the levels of mortality and childbirth gradually increases in favor of the former. In the beginning of the first phase, the population growth within the boundary of zeros (0,1, 0,2….0.9) is feasible by periodically equalizing the levels of childbirth and mortality,

In the second phase, as a result of the slow growth of mortality rate, on the one hand and the high rate of childbirth reduction on the other hand, the distinction between them increases in favor of mortality and thus, natural depopulation grows.

During the third phase, depopulation reaches its limit and after the period of stagnation it starts reduction, therefore, in light of gradual growth of childbirth we notice the decrease in the level of depopulation, which is reflected in the significant tendency of reduction of natural depopulation. By the end of the third phase, in case of activating self-regulation of demographic system, the significant change in the demographic behavior of society and family will cause an active demographic politics to come to the forefront, which must first result in equating childbirth and mortality and then in natural growth on lower level.

The second phase, in terms of duration, must continue longer than the first and third phases, as during this period it is expected in developed countries, at the expense of growth of population’s life expectancy, and in developing countries, as a result of wide dissemination of the forms of family planning, that it will lead to childbirth reduction and subsequently to the growth of population’s demographic aging.  It will, in turn, substantially increase the level of mortality. It is also possible in this period that exogenic and endogenic factors will play a role in multiplying diseases, which will have an impact on the growth of mortality (especially during reproductive ages).

We do not exclude single-phased depopulation, which must be established by further research and debate among demographers. In contrast with earlier types of population reproduction, one of the main problems of the newest type of population reproduction is to preserve physical continuity of small nations. This stresses the problems of demographic security of smaller nations in the existing agenda.

Therefore, depopulation as the natural demographic process and the curtailed type of population reproduction is the safer for the existence of a country and nation the shorter it is in a given country. In this regard, based on all the mentioned information, it is necessary that society and government draw proper conclusions, come up with and implement an active demographic policy in order to root out depopulation in a timely manner.